In the 21st century, the global energy landscape will undergo significant transformations. The current energy structure, dominated by fossil fuels, which are limited in resources and heavily polluting, will gradually shift towards a diversified and composite energy structure centered on renewable energy sources that are abundant and clean. However, in the first 30 to 40 years of the 21st century, fossil fuels will still serve as the cornerstone of the global energy supply. The proportion of renewable energy, excluding hydropower, in the global energy mix will increase but remain relatively small. This transition to a new energy structure is a gradual process from quantitative change to qualitative change, requiring at least a century or more. Based on China’s long-term goals for economic and social development and the overall trends in the global photovoltaic (PV) market, the following preliminary estimates are made for China’s photovoltaic application market over the next 12 years (1999-2010).
Technical Predictions Underlying Market and Price Estimates
- Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells: By 2010, crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells will remain the mainstay of photovoltaic technology, advancing towards higher efficiency and lower costs.
- Thin-Film Photovoltaic Cells: These are poised to become the dominant photovoltaic cells in the mid-21st century, with significant breakthroughs expected around 2010, gradually entering commercial production and being applied in grid-connected photovoltaic power generation and photovoltaic rooftop power generation.
- Key Balancing Equipment: Controllers, inverters, and other critical equipment will evolve towards higher reliability, efficiency, intelligence, and lower costs.
- Batteries: Batteries more suitable for photovoltaic power generation, featuring long lifespan, low cost, and maintenance-free operation, will be developed.
- System Integration Technology: This will become more scientific, standardized, intelligent, and integrated.
Non-Grid-Connected System Market Estimates
Currently, all photovoltaic power generation systems in China are non-grid-connected, commonly known as stand-alone photovoltaic systems. It is estimated that from 1999 to 2010, the installed capacity of photovoltaic cells in China’s non-grid-connected photovoltaic power generation systems will increase annually by more than 20%, as shown in Table 1.
| Year | Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic Cells (MW) |
|---|---|
| 1999 | [Base Year Data] |
| 2005 | [Projected Data] |
| 2010 | [Projected Data] |
Table 1: Estimated Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic Cells in China’s Non-Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems (1999-2010)
1.1 Rural and Rural Electrification
Market Estimate
By the end of 1998, it is estimated that there were still over 14 million households and more than 60 million agricultural and pastoral populations in China without access to electricity. Many of these people reside in regions with abundant solar energy resources, such as the northwest provinces, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Yunnan, Hainan, and Sichuan’s Aba Prefecture. Based on national requirements for rural electrification and plans from relevant departments and provinces, a preliminary estimate of the photovoltaic market for rural and rural electrification is provided in Table 2.
| Year | Estimated Photovoltaic Market (MW) |
|---|---|
| 1999 | [Base Year Data] |
| 2005 | [Projected Data] |
| 2010 | [Projected Data] |
Table 2: Estimated Photovoltaic Market for Rural Electrification in China (1999-2010)
Price Estimate
Taking the most commonly used 20W DC household photovoltaic power system as an example, the current average selling price is 1,800 yuan, or 90 yuan per peak watt (Wp). The price of photovoltaic modules accounts for about 50% of the total system price and has the greatest potential for reduction. By 2010, it is estimated that the price of photovoltaic modules could drop to 20 yuan/Wp, reducing the overall system price to 50-55 yuan/Wp.
1.2 Communications
Market Estimate
In 1998, the estimated photovoltaic module usage in communication power sources was about 0.8 MW. With the rapid development of the communications industry, the demand for photovoltaic modules in this sector is projected to increase by 10% annually for the first seven years and by 5% annually for the next five years, as shown in Table 3.
| Year | Estimated Demand for Photovoltaic Modules (MW) |
|---|---|
| 1999 | [Base Year Data] |
| 2005 | [Projected Data] |
| 2010 | [Projected Data] |
Table 3: Estimated Demand for Photovoltaic Modules in China’s Communications Industry (1999-2010)
Price Estimate
The average system price, including photovoltaic modules, batteries, controllers, etc., is currently about 80-90 yuan/Wp. By 2010, it is expected to drop to 55-60 yuan/Wp.
1.3 Other Industrial Sectors
Market Estimate
The demand for photovoltaic modules in other industrial sectors, such as railway and highway signaling power sources, lighthouse power sources, meteorological stations, earthquake monitoring stations, cathodic protection for pipelines, forest fire prevention systems, highway maintenance depots, border posts, and highway signs, is estimated to account for 20% of the total photovoltaic market.
Price Estimate
The current average system price is 85-90 yuan/Wp, with potential reductions to 65-70 yuan/Wp by 2005 and 50-55 yuan/Wp by 2010.
Grid-Connected System Market Estimates
Grid-connected photovoltaic systems are a significant technological step towards large-scale photovoltaic power generation and integration into the power industry. They represent the current trend in global photovoltaic power generation.
2.1 Grid-Connected Power Generation
Market Estimate
With the substantial reduction in the cost of photovoltaic power generation systems, the continuous rise in the comprehensive cost of conventional energy power generation, and increasingly stringent environmental protection requirements, the market demand for grid-connected power generation systems will continue to expand. It is estimated that by 2010, there will be 15-20 grid-connected photovoltaic power generation systems with a total installed capacity of 15 MW.
Price Estimate
The cost of grid-connected power generation systems is generally 15%-20% lower than that of stand-alone photovoltaic systems due to the omission of energy storage batteries. By 2010, the system price is expected to drop to 40-45 yuan/Wp.
2.2 Rooftop Power Generation
Market Estimate
The integration of photovoltaic power generation with buildings to form rooftop photovoltaic power generation systems has developed rapidly in recent years, offering a promising and vast market. It is estimated that by 2010, there will be 200,000 rooftop photovoltaic power generation systems with a total installed capacity of 400,000-1,000,000 kW.
Price Estimate
The system price in 2010 is expected to be 40-45 yuan/Wp.
Conclusion
The photovoltaic application market in China is poised for significant growth over the next decade, driven by technological advancements, cost reductions, and increasing demand from various sectors. With the ongoing transition to a more sustainable energy mix, photovoltaic power generation will play an increasingly important role in meeting global energy needs.
By leveraging these trends and investing in photovoltaic technology, China can not only address its energy challenges but also contribute to the global effort to combat climate change and promote sustainable development.