Abstract
The investment decision-making process for household distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, with a focus on the energy storage background. It adopts a case study approach, selecting a household distributed photovoltaic power generation project in an urban area of Zhengzhou (hereinafter referred to as LZ) to evaluate its investment decision comprehensively. By utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method, this paper explores the influencing factors of investment decisions for household distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, examines their degree of influence, and proposes strategies to enhance decision-making accuracy. The aim is to foster sustainable development in the renewable energy sector.
Keywords: Energy storage; Household distribution; Photovoltaic; Investment decisions; Comprehensive evaluation
1. Introduction
In the context of energy transformation and climate change, distributed photovoltaic power generation has emerged as a significant player in the renewable energy landscape. Coupled with advancements in energy storage technologies, household distributed photovoltaic power generation projects present new opportunities for optimizing energy utilization and enhancing energy resilience. However, making informed investment decisions in this domain requires a comprehensive understanding of various factors, including product technology, resource environment, policy influences, comprehensive benefits, and operational risks.
2. Literature Review and Theoretical Foundation
This section provides a review of existing literature on distributed photovoltaic power generation, energy storage, and investment decision-making. It outlines the theoretical underpinnings of the study, including concepts related to investment decision-making, comprehensive evaluation, AHP, and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method.
Table 1: Key Concepts and Theoretical Foundations
| Concept | Description |
|---|---|
| Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation | A type of photovoltaic power generation that is installed in close proximity to the load. |
| Energy Storage | The process of storing energy for later use. |
| Investment Decision-Making | The process of evaluating potential investments and selecting the most favorable ones. |
| Comprehensive Evaluation | A systematic approach to evaluating multiple aspects of an investment. |
| Analytic Hierarchy Process | A structured method for breaking down complex decisions. |
| Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation | A method for dealing with uncertainty and vagueness in evaluation. |
3. Evaluation Indicator System for Investment Decision-Making
Drawing from existing literature and expert opinions, this study constructs an evaluation indicator system for investment decisions in household distributed photovoltaic power generation projects. The system comprises five primary criteria: product technology, resource environment, policy impact, comprehensive benefits, and operational risks. Each criterion is further broken down into specific indicators, totaling 27 in all.
Table 2: Evaluation Indicator System
| Primary Criteria | Secondary Criteria | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| Product Technology | Photovoltaic Technology | Photovoltaic conversion efficiency |
| Equipment reliability | ||
| Technology maturity | ||
| Resource Environment | Solar Radiation | Annual solar radiation intensity |
| Daily solar radiation distribution | ||
| Land Availability | Available land for photovoltaic installation | |
| Policy Impact | Financial Incentives | Subsidies and tax benefits |
| Grid-connection policies | ||
| Regulatory Framework | Policies on photovoltaic development and operation | |
| Comprehensive Benefits | Economic Benefits | Investment payback period |
| Operational cost savings | ||
| Social Benefits | Employment generation | |
| Improvement in energy self-sufficiency | ||
| Environmental Benefits | Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions | |
| Operational Risks | Equipment Failure Risk | Frequency of equipment failures |
| Maintenance costs | ||
| Market Risk | Changes in electricity prices | |
| Technological obsolescence |
4. Methodology
This study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative analysis. The AHP is used to determine the weights of the evaluation indicators, while the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method is utilized for comprehensive evaluation.
4.1 Data Collection
Data for the evaluation is collected through questionnaires, expert interviews, and secondary sources such as government reports and industry publications.
4.2 Weight Determination Using AHP
The AHP involves breaking down the decision-making problem into a hierarchy of criteria and indicators, comparing them pairwise, and synthesizing the comparison results to determine their relative importance.
Table 3: AHP Pairwise Comparison Matrix (Example)
| Criteria | Product Technology | Resource Environment | Policy Impact | Comprehensive Benefits | Operational Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product Technology | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Resource Environment | 1/3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Policy Impact | 1/5 | 1/3 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Comprehensive Benefits | 1/7 | 1/5 | 1/3 | 1 | 3 |
| Operational Risks | 1/9 | 1/7 | 1/5 | 1/3 | 1 |
4.3 Comprehensive Evaluation Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method
The Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method involves constructing a fuzzy membership function for each indicator, calculating the membership degree of each evaluation object, and synthesizing the results to obtain the overall evaluation.
5. Case Study: LZ Household Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Project
This section presents a case study of the LZ household distributed photovoltaic power generation project, applying the evaluation indicator system and methodology developed in previous sections.
5.1 Project Overview
The LZ project is located in an urban area of Zhengzhou, with a total installed capacity of X kWp. The project utilizes high-efficiency photovoltaic modules and energy storage systems to enhance energy resilience and reduce operational costs.
5.2 Evaluation Results
The evaluation results indicate that the LZ project scores high in terms of product technology and comprehensive benefits, particularly in economic and environmental benefits. However, it faces challenges in terms of resource environment and operational risks, such as land availability and market volatility.
Table 4: Evaluation Results
| Primary Criteria | Evaluation Score (on a scale of 1-10) |
|---|---|
| Product Technology | 8.5 |
| Resource Environment | 6.0 |
| Policy Impact | 7.5 |
| Comprehensive Benefits | 9.0 |
| Operational Risks | 6.5 |
6. Discussion and Implications
The evaluation results suggest that the most critical factors in investment decision-making for household distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are the output of comprehensive benefits and the improvement of product technology, supported by sufficient social and photovoltaic policies. To enhance decision-making accuracy, investors should focus on improving economic, social, and ecological benefits, ensuring long-term healthy and stable development of the projects.
7. Conclusion and Future Research Directions
The comprehensive evaluation framework for investment decisions in household distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in the context of energy storage. By applying the AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method, it explores the influencing factors and their degree of influence on investment decisions. The results indicate that product technology and comprehensive benefits are crucial for successful investments.
Future research can further refine the evaluation indicator system, incorporating emerging technologies and policies. Additionally, case studies in different regions and contexts can provide insights into the variability of evaluation results and facilitate the generalization of findings.