By using deterministic models, the future evolution of LCOE for different energy storage systems from 2020 to 2050 was compared. Figures 1 and 2 show the changes in LCOE of different energy storage systems under the Blue Map and Roadmap scenarios, respectively. In both cases, as the scale of future solar thermal power plants continues to increase, the cost of system levelized kWh gradually decreases.
From Figure 1, it can be seen that in the Blue Map scenario, due to the small installation scale in the initial year, the LCOE value of the system is relatively large. As the installation scale increases, the LCOE value of the system decreases. In the initial year, the LCOE decreases rapidly. When the installation scale reaches a certain level, the change in the LCOE value of the system decreases. From the graph, it can be seen that around 2035, the LCOE of different energy storage systems tends to stabilize, mainly due to the weakened effect of scale effect on the cost reduction of system leveling electricity. In 2050, the LCOE values of different energy storage systems decreased by about 41% compared to 2020.
In Figure 2, due to the faster development of the installation scale of solar thermal power plants in the Roadmap scenario, the cost of system leveling per kilowatt hour is lower than that in the Blue Map scenario. From the graph, it can be seen that the decrease in LCOE of the initial time system is smaller than that of the Blue Map scenario. However, as time goes by, the installation scale of solar thermal power plants continues to expand, and the LCOE value of the system is still decreasing, with a higher trend of decrease in the later stage than in the Blue Map scenario. This is because in the Blue Map scenario, the installation scale tends to stabilize in the later stage, while in the Road Map scenario, the installation scale continues to increase. In 2050, the LCOE values of different energy storage systems decreased by about 27% compared to 2020.