In order to achieve the “dual carbon” goal and address global climate change, China’s energy structure is accelerating its transition from high polluting fossil fuels to low polluting clean energy, with clean energy represented by solar and wind energy becoming a development hotspot.
Recently, Wang Rong, a young researcher from the Department of Environmental Science and Engineering at Fudan University, published the latest research results in Nature. For the first time, from the perspective of energy system coordination, they proposed the optimal path for China to accelerate the development of photovoltaic and wind power, and achieve carbon neutrality goals. They also revealed the potential and cost of China’s solar and wind energy resources.
1. Good opportunity to seize a competitive advantage in global competition
In China’s energy elements, although coal plays a role as a ballast stone, its negative effects are already quite obvious. Currently, the development of fossil fuel industries has reached a bottleneck period, and the urgent task is to accelerate the development of new energy. In recent years, the proportion of renewable energy, especially solar and wind energy, in China has been continuously increasing, with significant results.
“Solar and wind energy are green and renewable energy sources that are very clean and have great potential as investment directions, which will drive the development of a series of related industries.” Wang Rong said in an interview with China Science Daily, “Whether from the perspective of environmental protection or economic development, research on solar and wind energy resources is very important.”.
For example, semiconductor materials for producing solar photovoltaic panels, chips for wind turbines, and artificial intelligence technology for real-time control of wind speed and direction are all research directions for new energy.
“If China can advance its layout and develop the entire optoelectronic and wind power industry chain, it will occupy an advantageous position in global competition in the future,” said Wang Rong.
Since 2018, Wang Rong, who has been engaged in atmospheric chemistry model research for a long time, has shifted his research focus to energy. He hopes to find the optimal path for developing solar and wind energy that is suitable for China’s national conditions, and provide scientific suggestions for China’s energy transformation under the goal of carbon neutrality.
2. Establish a complex digital intelligent information system for the Earth
There are many studies on solar and wind energy, and numerous related articles are published every year. However, previous research has a limitation, which is the lack of a complex system of Earth digital intelligent information with high spatiotemporal resolution. Therefore, the research results cannot accurately reflect the power generation potential and change trends of China’s solar and wind energy, resulting in the inability to accurately estimate the optimal path and emission reduction potential for China’s energy transformation in the comprehensive assessment of climate governance.
To address this issue, the research team urgently needs a high-resolution Earth system model. It happened that all the earth system numerical simulation devices of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Atmospheric Physics Research provided a computing platform for the earth system’s hourly spatial data of solar radiation and wind speed for many years.
“We spent nearly a year and a half transforming the data of this Earth system from a coarse resolution of about 400 kilometers to a high resolution of nearly 1 kilometer,” said Wang Rong.
Another challenge ahead is the establishment of big data in the power system. “The power system includes transmission, energy storage, and power terminals. China’s solar and wind energy are mainly concentrated in western regions such as Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia, and the generated electricity needs to be transmitted to various parts of China, which requires the establishment of ultra-high voltage transmission networks. In addition, due to the insufficient energy storage potential in China, some power consumption sectors may experience power shortages at a certain period of time.” Wang Rong explained.
Therefore, combining the Earth system with the power system has become the key to research.
The research team has established a complex digital intelligent information system for the Earth based on years of solar radiation and hourly wind speed spatial data in the Earth system, taking into account national administrative divisions, land types, climate conditions, terrain and other spatial geographic information. The system can adjust optimization objectives according to the needs of researchers.
In addition, they also coordinated and coordinated the development of ultra-high voltage power transmission lines, selected appropriate types of energy storage systems, and optimized the power load at the power consumption end. Based on the principle of minimizing the cost of leveling electricity, they optimized the spatial distribution and construction scale of 2767 solar photovoltaic power plants, 1066 onshore wind power plants, and 11 large offshore wind power plants. They also optimized the construction time of each power plant based on the impact of technological learning on costs, We have formulated a medium to long-term construction plan for China to accelerate the development of solar and wind power generation as alternatives to fossil fuels.
In order to achieve carbon neutrality goals, if the current planned construction speed of solar and wind power generation is followed, China’s solar and wind resources are still unable to meet future energy needs. Therefore, a large number of carbon capture and storage facilities need to be adopted, which require an annual installed capacity of nearly 20 trillion kilowatt hours and have high economic costs.
“The optimization model we are studying can increase solar and wind power generation at a lower cost, with power generation increasing from 9 trillion kilowatt hours per year to 15 trillion kilowatt hours per year. The cost of emission reduction can be reduced from about 700 yuan per ton of carbon dioxide to about 40 yuan per ton, greatly increasing the potential for using solar and wind energy resources,” said Wang Rong.
This also indicates that increasing the effective power generation of solar and wind energy can reduce the total cost of achieving carbon neutrality and accelerate the development speed of clean energy in China.
3. Provide new impetus for regional development
China’s solar and wind energy resources are mainly distributed in the economically underdeveloped western regions. Inter regional power transmission not only improves electricity efficiency, but also brings potential economic benefits to the western region, promoting regional economic development.
On the basis of optimizing the development path of solar and wind energy, the research team analyzed the capital flow situation between regions. Wang Rong introduced that if a price of 700 yuan per ton of carbon dioxide is adopted, by 2060, the financial flow of photovoltaic and wind power will reach an average of 7 trillion yuan per year.
Among them, the maximum capital flow generated by the power transmission of optoelectronics and wind power is flowing from East China to Northwest China, which will reach a scale of approximately 1.4 trillion yuan per year. Optimizing the spatial layout of photovoltaic and wind power can benefit residents in economically underdeveloped areas, with the annual per capita income in the northwest region expected to increase from 210000 yuan to 250000 yuan.
“According to our model, Xinjiang region is estimated to be the most important location for solar and wind energy resources in the future,” said Wang Rong.
By 2060, it is expected that there will be 255 solar photovoltaic and wind power plants in Xinjiang, with an installed capacity of approximately 2.3 billion kilowatts. The total capacity of supporting ultra-high voltage lines will reach 2 billion kilowatts, and the capacity of energy storage facilities will also reach 270 million kilowatts. Based on the current fossil fuel prices, the estimated annual revenue can reach 380 billion yuan.
By establishing a high-resolution Earth digital intelligent information complex system, this study found that even if future technological development further reduces the cost of solar photovoltaics and wind turbines, considering the technological challenges of building new solar photovoltaics and wind power plants, it is still necessary to expand the current scale of clean energy investment and accelerate the upgrading speed of the national power system, Especially, it is necessary to develop technologies for large-scale solar photovoltaic and wind power generation, as well as high-voltage transmission, to increase the proportion of solar and wind energy in China’s future energy production, reduce the economic costs of power system transformation and upgrading, and achieve carbon neutrality goals.
“The availability of clean energy is limited, but China can increase investment in clean energy, optimize source load regulation, strengthen supporting facility construction, and significantly reduce the cost of solar and wind energy,” said Wang Rong.
The research results indicate that after considering factors such as technological progress, the development plan for the next 10 years is crucial for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal. Optimizing the current planning and layout of clean energy development can avoid bearing greater economic losses in the later stages. Meanwhile, after upgrading the national power system, the development of solar and wind energy will generate financial flows between regions, bringing benefits to the western region and further providing new impetus for regional development.